This work proposes a conflict-analysis methodology, supported by a solid conceptual framework for formulating security policy and strategy. The differential in the methodology, already successfully applied in several countries, lies in a sophisticated deconstruction of the decision-making environment along seven axes of analysis and its subsequent reconstruction, while simultaneously developing trend projections, to identify the critical dynamics of areas of insecurity. The methodology was developed to be applied collaboratively by specialists in the various fields of expertise connected with security, and is easily adaptable to each country's specific policy and strategy-making practice.
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Strategic communications is a key means of gaining acceptance of one's ideas, policies or courses of action. As such it plays a critical role in helping the United States to reinforce understanding of its values and culture — including support for its ideas, policies and courses of action — both within its war-fighting establishment and by the rest of the world. This article examines the historical actions of military chaplains to shed light on a critical aspect of their work; their ministries as strategic communications platforms from which they carry out a pastoral role while offering, as valued members of the military inner circle, religious, moral, spiritual and ethical advice to leadership, both at the strategic and tactical levels. It examines the role of the American military chaplaincy as a strategic communications phenomenon that predates the concept itself. A buzzword emanating from the 1990s that gained even greater currency in the September 11, 2001 global "war of ideas" — "strategic communications" might appear to be a new concept. Yet for centuries military chaplains have labored as strategic communicators in an effort to win support within the armed forces for their countries' national policy and doctrine.
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The national security implications of pandemic influenza have immeasurable social costs, but also important are the quantifiable economic costs. We estimated the possible macroeconomic effects of the next influenza pandemic on the Jamaican economy and analyzed the economic impact of vaccine-based interventions. The estimated economic impact would be approximately JA$2.6B, excluding disruptions to commerce and society. Loss in man hours is estimated over a two (2) week work period at approximately 15M hours using an estimated average attack rate of 17% across the leading economic sectors. With vaccination cost per patient ranging between US$18 to as high as US$59, the overall cost of vaccinating members of the estimated labour force who might be exposed to an attack is as high as JA$917M. We therefore project a net savings to the society if persons within the labour force are vaccinated. Critical among the labour force are public and corporate security. Public safety and public order are paramount during an outbreak of pandemic influenza.
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The new guerrilla group known as the Paraguayan People's Army, or EPP, is unique as a Marxist insurgency against a Marxist-sympathetic populist government. Although still small they appear to be growing. The evidence indicates that EPP is a serious group that has been in development for more than twenty years. They have an ideology and a strategic plan that they are systematically carrying out. They are anything but amateurs. They have acquired training and assistance from the Colombian FARC, if not others. They have built up funds through bank robberies and kidnappings, and gradually they are expanding their operations. While sometimes referred to as a "foquista" movement, the comparison falls short. What distinguishes EPP is the significant support base they have systematically built up among the radical elements of the Paraguayan rural peasantry, particularly in the north of the country. So far the state has responded by sending contingents of policemen and soldiers to cordon off and search rural areas in San Pedro and Concepcion. These operations appear to have produced little result. This article discusses the EPP's history and dynamics.
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In this paper, we examine whether the 1990s neoliberal reforms, commonly known as the Washington Consensus, which many Latin American nations implemented, ultimately impacted US national security. Given the rise of leftist regimes in Argentina and Venezuela coupled with the distancing of former allies in Brazil and Chile, we ask whether these reforms, meant to strengthen US national security, harmed it instead. We briefly review the literature on the causes of the Latin American economic crises, which led to the Washington Consensus and explore the various methods of reform implementation in four countries of strategic interest to the United States: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Venezuela. Examining whether the reforms, in general, were successful, we consider competing theories on the success (or the failure) of the reforms in these countries. Reviewing evidence on the reforms' impact on these nations, we discuss whether or not the reforms should be abandoned. We find that while stakeholders held competing objectives and divergent opinions existed on the scope, type, and speed of the reforms, the reforms appear to have improved economic growth and reduced poverty. We argue that, despite associating neoliberal reforms with increasing anti-American sentiment, Latin American support for free trade and other aspects of the neoliberal reforms remains strong. For this reason, we argue that the United States should reinvigorate support for these reforms.
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The paper analyses the roles and functions of the military and civilian police and comes to the conclusion that either the disbanding or amalgamation of the military in small developing countries would denude the state's capability of providing a stable National Security environment. It suggests that transformation of the military to be more relevant to the developing economies is more appropriate. The link of the hemispheric threats of the nation states of the Caribbean, to National Security and the differing roles of the police and military services is investigated and it is argued that the concomitancy of appropriate training to functions is critical and herein lies one of the major impediments to amalgamation. The paper argues that discipline is the foundation of military combat readiness and combat effectiveness and is more important in today's complex security environment of asymmetric threats from non-state actors where the "release aggression, restrain excess" paradox is most relevant.
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The essay examines the impact of military assistance on the levels of state violence against civilians during civil wars. Azam and Hoeffler argue that outside funding raises the levels of counterinsurgent brutality. This essay claims that this may be true for development assistance, but not for military aid. Using data from Peru and El Salvador, it is suggested that military aid may sometimes be inversely related to the levels of violence against civilians. This is explained by two factors. First, development aid only increases the funding of brutal regimes, whereas military assistance can also induce them to abandon brutality. Second, while traditional military aid programmes have been driven mostly by strategic concerns, those implemented in Peru and El Salvador also incorporated human rights considerations.
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