Influenza Pandemic and its National Security and Macroeconomic Implications for Jamaica

The national security implications of pandemic influenza have immeasurable social costs, but also important are the quantifiable economic costs. We estimated the possible macroeconomic effects of the next influenza pandemic on the Jamaican economy and analyzed the economic impact of vaccine-based interventions. The estimated economic impact would be approximately JA$2.6B, excluding disruptions to commerce and society. Loss in man hours is estimated over a two (2) week work period at approximately 15M hours using an estimated average attack rate of 17% across the leading economic sectors. With vaccination cost per patient ranging between US$18 to as high as US$59, the overall cost of vaccinating members of the estimated labour force who might be exposed to an attack is as high as JA$917M. We therefore project a net savings to the society if persons within the labour force are vaccinated. Critical among the labour force are public and corporate security. Public safety and public order are paramount during an outbreak of pandemic influenza.

File Type: pdf
Categories: SDSR
Author: Allan Wright, Hilton McDavid, Ramjee Singh

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